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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DAL 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 17 for 4 yards (91-P.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.98 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model