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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 6

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.05 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 6, worth +0.53 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP