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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to 88-P.Freiermuth [96-C.Sample].

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.80 EP