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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 35 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.41 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model