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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(:36) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model