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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 4-M.Wright 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model