4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 88

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 43 for 11 yards (27-M.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.77 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 88, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP