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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 46 for no gain. PENALTY on CIN-11-T.Taylor, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.82 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model