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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 4-D.Chrisman punts 53 yards to PIT 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT -5. 82-S.Sims to PIT 5 for 10 yards (33-T.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model