Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 67

Chicago Bears 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:16) 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to ATL 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-A.Williams to ATL 42 for 15 yards (84-R.Griffin). Chicago challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to ATL 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-A.Williams to ATL 43 for 16 yards (84-R.Griffin, 36-D.Houston-Carson). FUMBLES (36-D.Houston-Carson), touched at ATL 40, RECOVERED by CHI-57-J.Sanborn at ATL 41.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.76 EP
55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model