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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to CHI 16, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.38 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model