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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 7-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.05 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model