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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-48-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model