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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 38

Chicago Bears 17 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 2-C.Santos 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.82 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model