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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 23

Chicago Bears 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 2-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model