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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to CHI 30, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.61 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model