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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 28 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.30 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP