Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 87

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-53-D.Phillips. PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Wooten, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.60 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model