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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 11-J.Stout punts 27 yards to CAR 13, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.01 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP