Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(5:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 35 for -8 yards (4-J.Pierre-Paul).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.46 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 57, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP