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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.95 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model