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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(:05) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model