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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 14

Washington Commanders 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 6-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model