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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to WAS 30, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model