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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to IND 10, Center-47-T.Sieg. 15-K.Coutee to IND 20 for 10 yards (41-M.Farley; 22-A.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model