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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to IND 18, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-41-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model