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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.92 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model