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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 2 at the 44
Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10
What Actually Happened
(8:05) 28-J.Jacobs left end to IND 47 for -3 yards (23-K.Moore).
The Three Options
GO
+0.98 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
- 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK
-0.42 EP
- 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
- 50% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
