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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 76

Houston Texans 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NYG 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-A.Jackson to NYG 30 for no gain (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model