Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Houston Texans 0

(5:07) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to HOU 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 25-D.King to HOU 20 for -1 yards (47-C.Brown, 20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.92 EP
48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model