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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 31

New York Giants 21 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.49 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model