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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 16

Houston Texans 10 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.98 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model