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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 19

Houston Texans 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 7-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 19, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model