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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 44

Chicago Bears 3 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model