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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 55

Chicago Bears 30 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to DET 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.25 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model