Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 74

Chicago Bears 24 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to DET 35, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-48-P.Scales, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.46 EP
50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model