Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 69

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 17

(4:20) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to CHI 18, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 29 for 11 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.53 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model