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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 68

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to CHI 9, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 24 for 15 yards (39-J.Jacobs, 49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP