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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 2

Detroit Lions 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 2, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model