Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to TEN 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-C.Board to TEN 42 for 16 yards (48-M.Fraboni, 6-P.Locke). FUMBLES (6-P.Locke), and recovers at TEN 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model