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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to DEN 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-M.Washington to DEN 21 for 8 yards (53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model