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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 25

Denver Broncos 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell (28-J.Kalu) [94-M.Edwards] at TEN 0. 39-T.Mitchell to TEN 1 for 1 yard.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.63 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.68 EP