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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end pushed ob at DEN 39 for 9 yards (47-A.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model