Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to DEN 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-M.Washington to DEN 31 for 4 yards (40-D.Hilliard, 25-H.Haskins). PENALTY on DEN-16-T.Cleveland, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model