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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 61

Denver Broncos 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 41 yards to TEN 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-54-J.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model