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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 21

Denver Broncos 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.96 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model