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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model