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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 60

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to TEN 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-C.Board to TEN 20 for 6 yards (49-A.Singleton, 48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model