4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott right guard to GB 30 for 1 yard (94-D.Lowry; 58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model