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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DAL 6, Center-56-J.Coco. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 17 for 11 yards (6-D.Leavitt).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model